Urbanexus Update - Issue #101
H. Pike Oliver compiles this weekly update of real estate and community development news focused primarily on the USA. The inclusion of an article does not imply endorsement. And please note that some links may lead to items that are behind a paywall.
Again, as last week, the focus is on how the coronavirus pandemic is affecting real estate and community development.
The economy
Assessing the impact of COVID-19 on US workers The near-term impact of coronavirus is staggering: One-third of US jobs may be vulnerable--and 86 percent of those taking a hit are low-income workers.
The $2 Tn COVID-19 stimulus bill — www.visualcapitalist.com A visual breakdown of the CARES Act, the $2 trillion package to provide COVID-19 economic relief. It's the largest stimulus bill in modern history.
Commericial real estate overall
Coronavirus accelerating trends NAIOP is predicting that the coronavirus outbreak will accelerate trends that had been forming in commercial real estate and cause dramatic changes in the industry faster than had been anticipated.
Retail
GameStop to close more than 300 stores
Video game retailer GameStop Corp. (NYSE: GME) plans to close more than 300 North American stores in 2020. The firm did not specify which stores and markets would be affected by the closures, but said that it anticipates the total number of shuttered stores to be equal to or greater than the 320 stores that it closed in 2019. GameStop saw its total comparable stores sales across the globe decrease 26.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2019 relative to that period a year earlier.
Simon Property shrinks workforce during COVID-19 crisis
Faced with the prospect of its tenants not being able to make rent, Simon Property Group (SPG -15.3%) has furloughed about 30% of its workforce, CNBC reported.
Hospitality
CBRE predicts 60% hotel RevPAR drop — rebusinessonline.com
As the impact of the coronavirus pandemic continues to develop, CBRE Hotels Research has released a revised Viewpoint Hotel 2020 Outlook. The firm's updated forecast shows a 37 percent decline in revenue per available room (RevPAR) for the entire year, with a contraction of more than 60 percent in the second quarter. The firm’s earlier estimate was a 0.1 percent decline in RevPAR for the year.
Office
WeWork pleads with landlords for rent cuts
WeWork (WE) is contacting its landlords and pitching ways to trim as much as 30% from its liabilities, according to Bloomberg sources.
Industrial
Increased interest in on-demand warehousing A report recently issued by Los Angeles-based industrial real estate firm CBRE highlighted how the ongoing coronavirus, or COVID-19, pandemic is drawing in interest in on-demand warehousing by retailers.
Residential
Surging unemployment and multi-family housing Demand growth expectations at a national level for multifamily could be cut by between 10% and 20% CoStar says.
Experts warn a housing crisis shadows the health crisis. Federal, state and local governments have scrambled to enact policies to keep renters whose sources of income have disappeared from getting evicted soon.
Reducing coronavirus spread
Mobility reductions reduced COVID-19 in Seattle
Using epidemiological data, conditioned on the assumption that changes in case data from February 26th to March 23rd are reflective of epidemiological changes, the effective reproductive number in King County has declined considerably. Before social distancing began onMarch 2nd, 𝑅𝑅𝑒𝑒 was approximately 2.7 ± 0.9. However, on March 18th, it appears that 𝑅𝑅𝑒𝑒 is 1.4 ± 0.2, which is on the cusp of declining transmission. Daily estimates are shown in black with two standard deviation error bars in Figure 1.
Community development
Facts don't support the ‘density is dangerous’ narrative Ultimately, this crisis will highlight how much we need to come together in the real world, and cities are a big part of that.
Metropolitan and regional dynamics
Seattle 3rd in population growth among U.S. counties
King County (Seattle area) added more people than only two other U.S. counties, which are located in the Sunbelt.
Construction
Seattle dethroned as crane king
This is the third straight drop in the count for Seattle, which had mostly led the nation for years until it fell into a tie last summer with Los Angeles, both with 49 cranes at that time. Los Angeles now has 47 cranes, the most of the 12 U.S. cities surveyed for the index. Canada was home to the other two top cities; with an amazing 121 cranes in Toronto and 37 cranes in Calgary.