Urbanexus Update - Issue #113
H. Pike Oliver distributes this weekly selection of real estate and community development news. Some items are behind a paywall.
Continuing jobless claims fall below 20 million — eyeonhousing.org Weekly initial jobless claims totaled 1.48 million in the week ending June 20 and continuing claims, which lags initial jobless claims by one week, declined by
Prospects beyond the pandemic
An 18-Month View of a Post-COVID World The World Economic Forum surveyed 347 risk analysts to uncover the biggest post-pandemic threats—no area from the economy to the environment is untouched.
Mega mixed-use development
How will Hudson Yards survive the pandemic?
Coronavirus killed the new New York City neighborhood’s momentum, but its potential for rebound could be a bellwether for the city’s overall economic health and the future of the largest mixed use development in the USA.
Office
Covid-19: is working from home really the new normal?
The covid-19 pandemic has accelerated a shift towards remote working. This could affect not just people’s working lives, but the shape of cities, gender equality and even how we measure time.
Residential
Good rent payment tracker news for June
National Multi-Housing Council finds 92 percent of tenants paid rent as of June 20th. This is the same pace as in June 2019.
A significant percentage of residential renters in several metro areas are pessimistic about being able to pay rent in July.
Share of builders cutting prices drops — eyeonhousing.org
As lockdown orders began to ease in May and June 2020, housing data rebounded quickly, providing evidence that this industry is positioned to lead the economy.
How the pandemic has changed what homebuyers want
The pandemic has changed what home buyers want. The Mortgage Bankers Association Purchase Index for the week ending on June 5 was up 13% from the same week a year ago. Taylor Morrison Home (ticker: TMHC), the No. 5 U.S. home builder, whose sales declined 30% in April versus a year earlier, reported a 17% increase in May. “We’ve seen that momentum continue,” CEO Sheryl Palmer says. “How we can go from peak to trough back to peak again, all in about 10, 12 weeks, is unlike anything I’ve seen.”
Impact of COVID-19 on the multifamily appraisals
An important part of any appraisal assignment is an analysis of market conditions. The coronavirus threat may be impacting market conditions. However, in most markets, it is not yet clear to what extent, if any, market conditions are affected. Related, complicating factors include fluctuations in the stock market and changes in mortgage interest rates.
Market analysis includes observing market reactions. This analysis becomes more complicated when market participants themselves are facing uncertainty. Appraisal reports should include a discussion of market conditions and should mention the coronavirus outbreak and its possible impact. However, it is not appropriate to include a disclaimer or extraordinary assumption that suggests the appraiser is not taking responsibility for the analysis of market conditions.
Retail
GNC files for Chapter 11 bankruptcy
Global health and wellness company GNC Holdings Inc. (NYSE: GNC) has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Over the past year, the company has executed a strategy to close underperforming stores, while investing further in alternatives to in-store sales, such as e-commerce. With the Chapter 11 filing, GNC expects to accelerate the closure of 800 to 1,200 stores.
Real estate and taxation
Opportunity zone assessment A report on opportunity zones finds that a tax incentive President Trump credits with revitalizing black communities has mostly helped real estate developers.
50-state property tax comparison
s the largest source of revenue raised by local governments, a well-functioning property tax system is critical for promoting municipal fiscal health. This report documents the wide range of property tax rates in 2019 for more than 100 U.S. cities and helps explain why they vary so widely. This context is important because high property tax rates usually reflect some combination of heavy property tax reliance with low sales and income taxes, low home values that drive up the tax rate needed to raise enough revenue, or higher local government spending and better public services. In addition, some cities use property tax classification, which can result in considerably higher tax rates on business and apartment properties than on homesteads.
Regional and metropolitan dynamics
Four years ago, Weyerhaeuser moved from Federal Way to a gleaming new building in Pioneer Square. That same year, it sold its iconic, custom-built 1971 headquarters to Industrial Realty Group for over $70 million. Is that trend about to reverse itself? It already was, pre-COVID-19, according to John Chang of Marcus & Millichap. That firm organized a web panel this week titled “The Shape of Things to Come: Will the Pandemic Accelerate a Suburban Revival?”
For the first time, the high-income West is not represented in the 10 largest urban areas. In 1950, four such cities — New York, London, Paris and Chicago — were on the United Nations list. New York, which had been the largest built-up urban area from the 1920s to 1950, fell to 11th place, while the others had long ago fallen out (Figure 3 copied below.) Chicago has suffered the largest drop, from 8th to 41st. That is despite a near doubling of its population from 1950 to 2020. The Los Angeles built-up urban area, which ranked 12th in 1950, nearly quadrupled its population, but fell to 20th, after having reached 6th largest from 1965 to 1975.
Urban planning and community development
Minneapolis' plan to tackle racial inequity with zoning Racial discrimination shaped the map of Minneapolis. Then city zoning locked many of those patterns into place. Maddie talks with NPR climate reporter Lauren Sommer about Minneapolis' bold plan to tackle housing disparities — and climate change. The new rules went into effect earlier this year. Community groups are calling on the city to follow through.