Urbanexus Update - Issue #16
Please scroll down for my weekly selection of information and opinion about real estate and community development.
Economy
Housing share of GDP — eyeonhousing.org
With the release of the final estimate of first quarter 2018 GDP growth (2% growth rate), housing's share of gross domestic product (GDP) declined slightly to 15.3%.
The truck-driver shortage is getting worse
The demand for trucking services is greater than the number of drivers, and freight costs have increased as a result.
Self-driving trucks can't arrive soon enough!
Framing lumber prices up sharply — www.calculatedriskblog.com
Random Lengths prices are up 44% from a year ago, and Chicago Mercantile Exchange futures are up about 52% year-over-year.
Demographics
US white population declines and generation “Z-Plus” is minority White
Brookings senior fellow William H. Frey examines the U.S. Census Bureau's release of age and race statistics for 2017
Americans are having fewer babies — www.nytimes.com
Women have more options, for one. But a new poll also shows that financial insecurity is altering a generation’s choices. Philip Cohen, a sociologist at the University of Maryland who studies families and has written about fertilitysaid, “There is no getting around the fact that the relationship between gender equality and fertility is very strong: There are no high-fertility countries that are gender equal.”
Population migration: US cities Americans are abandoning The 50 cities where the most people are moving away from can primarily be found in the Northeast, Midwest, and West Coast, particularly in states like Illinois, Michigan, Ohio, and New York.
Retail
Mall vacancy rate increased in Q2 2018, "Worst quarter in nine years" — www.calculatedriskblog.com
After withstanding the hundreds if not thousands of store closings over the last 18 months, the neighborhood and community shopping center industry suffered its worst quarter in nine years with negative net absorption of 3.8 million square feet. This pushed the overall vacancy rate to 10.2% from 10.0 percent where it had held steady for the four previous quarters.
How smart cities will impact retail — meetingoftheminds.org US retail is, at present in robust good health, as measured by the most important metric: overall year-on-year revenue. What’s going on is not an apocalypse, but an ever-accelerating, very-Darwinian process of natural selection.
Land
2,900 acres acquired in Florida
The nations largest homebuilder now owns a large piece of central Pasco County, FL north of Tammpa. Lennar acquired more than 2,900 acres from the Bexley familys Angeline Corp. for $23.65 million.
Community development
The case for ignoring HQ2 City leaders will find that cultivating relationships with small homegrown companies is smarter—and cheaper—than trying to lure in an outside behemoth.
Can country clubs adapt to the millennial era? — www.citylab.com Golf-centric clubs are on the wane, even as private membership organizations for Millennials are re-emerging in urban areas.
Learning from Europe — www.planetizen.com It is indeed possible to have a city full of low-rise buildings that is still compact enough for excellent transit service—but only if most side streets are used for mid-rise buildings instead of houses.
Transportation and parking
Does the “joy of driving” affect people’s decision to drive? — mobilitylab.org We know that people often choose driving over more convenient modes for irrational reasons, like perceiving that public transportation will take more time or be more expensive than it actually is. But that’s only part of it.
Autonomous vehicles could reduce funding for transit American cities rely on car-related fees to fund public transit. But driverless cars might not need to park or fill up on gas—causing the system to collapse.
The 69 condos in 388 Fulton (left center) in San Francisco’s Hayes Valley sold easily in 2017 without any structured parking being provided.
Homelessness
Meeting unhoused persons in L.A. As homelessness has exploded, the haves and the have-nots meet on streets, at beaches and in libraries, challenging a city’s sense of itself.
Environment
Dismissal of fossil fuel impact lawsuit
Federal District Court Judge William Alsup dismissed the "global warming" lawsuits of the cities of Oakland and San Francisco against large oil and gas companies, His opinion offers important lessons in history, logic and public policy.
Striking maps that visualize the human footprint Our impact on the planet has been profound. These graphics visualize our human footprint by looking at population density, roads, undersea cables, and more.
Around the world
South Africa's 'dispossessed' urban poor call for land reform — www.thisisplace.org The most lucrative urban land is still in the hands of the minority.