Urbanexus Update - Issue #27
I strive to understand what creates opportunities—and challenges—for real estate investment and sustainable community development. You may learn about my background at http://www.urbanexus.com/about-h-pike-oliver/.
Please note that some links may take you to material that is behind a paywall.
The economy and real estate
Unemployment claims lowest since 1969 — www.calculatedriskblog.com
In the week ending September 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000, This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 15, 1969.
Homebuilders dip after choppy housing data
Despite the years-long economic reacceleration, homebuilders have been left out of the rally. The sector dipped 3% on continued signs of softening demand for single family homes.
Lack of for-sale housing inventory causing price increases — lsc-pagepro.mydigitalpublication.com
Even as interest rates rise and affordability conditions tighten, a lack of for-sale, single-family inventory remains the defining characteristic of most of the nation’s housing markets. It is this lack of inventory that continues to cause home prices to rise faster than income growth.
After years of dramatic increases, rents are finally showing signs of slowing In California markets After a remarkable run-up in housing costs that have crimped budgets, forced families from their neighborhoods and contributed to homelessness, signs are emerging that rent growth is slowing in major markets in California.
Mortgage delinquencies in the USA at a 12-year low
The delinquency rate was 4.3% in June 2018, down from 4.6% in June 2017, according to the latest CoreLogicLoan Performance Insights Report.
Housing starts increase and permits fall
August housing starts up in the USA
Housing starts in August, driven by multifamily, shot up 9.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,282,000, 9.4% above the August 2017 rate of 1,172,000. Single-family housing starts were at a rate of 876,000, up 1.9 % from the revised July figure of 860,000.
Housing permits fall in the USA — seekingalpha.com
Housing construction rebounded in August as single-family and multifamily starts rose by 1.9 percent and 27.3 percent, respectively. However, housing permits, and indicator of future activity, fell to the lowest level since Sugust 2016
Selected market data
Millennial hot-spots of the USA
This chart shows the places in the United States with the largest percentage increases in millennial residents 2011-2016.
Employment in Southern Nevada increased by 3.4 percent over the past year, reaching one million workers, while the total population in Southern Nevada increased 2.2 percent, surpassing more than 2.2 million people. With a well-documented shortage in housing, developers added more than 3,200 new apartment units during the year and still saw vacancies decrease 30 basis points to 5.2 percent.
New York City retail never better, nor as challenging
Lower rents and vacancies are creating opportunity for retailers who can adapt to the factors driving consumers’ shopping habits. Perhaps more importantly, many of the city’s most desirable retail corridors such as Fifth Avenue and SoHo were historically difficult to come by, regardless of a tenant’s ability to pay. Now, opportunity beckons.
Selected real estate projects
Cupertino approves Vallco Mall redevelopment near Apple’s HQ
Cupertino city officials voted Wednesday evening to approve a plan to replace the mostly vacant Vallco Mall. Construction on the $4 billion project, one of the largest in Silicon Valley and less than a mile from Apple’s new headquarters, could start soon.
Another condo tower sprouts in downtown Brooklyn — www.nytimes.com Tishman Speyer builds its first condo on the site of a Macy’s parking garage.
Large Florida land transaction
Miami Corp. has long envisioned turning the land it owns in and near Edgewater into thousands of new homes and millions of square feet of commercial space. Now the Chicago, Illinois-based company has added more adjoining acreage in hopes of enticing developers to turn its vision for that part of southeast Volusia County into reality.
Homelessness
San Francisco is cracking down on tent camps San Francisco’s aggressive approach to removing tent camps may be a preview of what’s to come in Seattle. The two cities have similar progressive politics, tech booms and growing wealth gaps.
Around the world
Uncontacted tribes at risk amid Amazon deforestation — www.thisisplace.org
South America's largest country is grappling with scores of deadly land conflicts, illustrating the tensions between preserving indigenous culture and economic development. Satellite imagery collected by Instituto Socioambiental (ISA), a Brazilian advocacy group, detected about 4,600 acres of deforestation this year in the Ituna Itata indigenous land in northern Para state.