Urbanexus Update - Issue #32
Urbanexus Update - Issue #32
Please scroll down for the weekly compilation of analysis, reporting and opinion about real estate and community development. Note that some links may lead to material that is behind a paywall.
The economy
Real estate development and GDP
Recent economic growth has been impressive considering the negligible impact of real estate development. Growth in residential fixed investment and business investment in structures was actually a drag in the third quarter, subtracting a combined 0.4% from the GDP figure. For context, these two categories boosted GDP by 1.3% at the peak in 2002 and dragged down GDP by 1.1% at the bottom in 2008. Residential construction contribution to GDP receded for the third straight quarter while non-residential investment in structures turned negative for the first time since 3Q17. The combined negative contribution of real estate building to GDP was the second worst since 2010 when these two categories combined to subtract nearly 1% from GDP.
Unemployment is down but wage growth remains stagnant — www.nytimes.com Trying to solve an economic mystery.
Life and compensation in real estate
Real estate compensation in 2018 — www.adventuresincre.com A look at compensation for real estate professionals in the US. Covers salary and bonus in areas such as acquisitions, development, and asset management.
A 2025 day in the life of real estate
Christopher E. Lee shares what he thinks a “day in the life” of real estate professionals will likely look like by the mid-2020s. What once was…isn’t. And what you could once “bank on” is becoming a fond memory.
An interesting transaction
Goldman Sachs buying Seattle’s historic Smith Tower — www.seattletimes.com
An interesting, at least to your curator, real estate transaction. The purchase of this landmark property is part of a nearly $750 million portfolio of buildings being acquired in the Seattle and Denver areas.
Demographics and real estate
Places in the USA most attractive to millennials Find out which cities millennials are moving to more often, and which have lower unemployment rates and higher wages.
The post married-couple household
It is difficult to grasp just how much living arrangements have changed in the United States unless you mine the Census Bureau's archives to uncover the nitty gritty of the way we used to live. The most dramatic change over the decades is the decline in the share of households headed by married couples. In three generations, the share of all households headed by married couples fell 26 percentage points—from 74 to just 48 percent. Among the youngest adults, the drop is 68 percentage points.
Housing
Experts say California needs to build a lot more housing, but the public disagrees Academic researchers, state analysts and California’s gubernatorial candidates agree that the fundamental issue underlying California’s housing crisis is that there’s not enough homes for everyone who wants to live here.
Investing in manufactured home communities — blog.realestate.cornell.edu
Manufactured home communities, formerly referred to as trailer parks, are often the overlooked “ugly duckling” of the residential real estate market. Despite their negative depiction in popular culture, manufactured homes are an important component of the U.S. housing market and can provide timely opportunities for real estate investors.
How Seattle’s homelessness policy perpetuates the crisis
The City of Seattle has failed to address ideological capture and poor policy decisions and the city has created a system of perverse incentives that has only made the crisis worse. In order to truly confront the problem of homeless- ness, the city’s leadership must embrace a policy of realism: quickly build emergency shelter, enforce the law against public camping, and dismantle the system of perverse incentives.
Affordable housing In backyards? — www.sightline.org Programs from Cascadia and beyond attempt to deploy backyard cottages as subsidized housing. Can it work on a larger scale?
Responding to external reality — www.newgeography.com
Writing about what happens to two tenants in San Francisco, John Sanfillippo says, " . . . We don’t have a choice about what’s happening in the economy. And we don’t have a choice about the political landscape. But we do have the ability to respond to our situations in ways that deliver the best possible results – even if the 'best' options aren’t as good as what we’re leaving behind."
Environment and resiliency
Why some home prices rebound quickly after a forest fire — www.citylab.com A ruined view following a wildfire affects property values, but only because it's a painful reminder of risk, economists find.
Around the world
Mapping the world's new megacities in 2030 — www.visualcapitalist.com
There are currently 33 megacities in the world with over 10 million inhabitants. By 2030, we are likely to have six new megacities (really, metropolitan regions), including one in the USA.