Urbanexus Update - Issue #46
Please scroll down for the weekly compilation of analysis, reporting and opinion about real estate and community development. Some links may lead to material that is behind a paywall.
Economics
Forecasting getting more difficult
On the surface, everything is still looking good, but Alan Nevin is beginning to worry, particularly about the real estate market in California.
Fewer people in the USA planning to buy a home
In the final quarter of 2018, 13% of adults reported plans to purchase a home within a year. A year earlier, in the final quarter of 2017, a significantly larger portion – 24% – had the same plans.
Home price gains continue to slow
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index on Tuesday reported a 5.2% annual gain in November, down from 5.3% in the previous month.
Great year for a government sponsored enterprise
In 2018, the Federal Home Lian Modtgage Corporation (Freddie Mac) had its best year ever in terms of multifamily production. The government-sponsored enterprise (GSE) closed a record $77.5 billion in loan purchase and guarantee volume and an additional $500 million in Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) equity investments.
Capital
The debt space remains very crowded as capital flows continue to rise and opportunities have declined due to fewer refinance opportunities. The good news is capital is far from complacent and underwriting remains very disciplined, which should enable the markets to continue to function well.
A significant transaction
Seattle building sells for $540 million
HInes sold the 800 Fifth office tower in Seattle to Blackstone Group for $540.35 million. The 42-story 800 Fifth building is the seventh-largest office building in the Puget Sound region and its sale is the largest Seattle-area real estate deal since the 2015 when Columbia Center went for $711 million. The building has 996,650 rentable square feet. Built in 1981, the tower received a $46 million interior makeover in 2017.
Demographics
How migration of millennials and seniors has shifted since the Great Recession The top regional magnets for young adults don't overlap with those attracting seniors; and for both groups, the recent magnets differ from those prior to the Great Recession.
Gentrification
The bifurcated city — www.city-journal.org
After drifting toward decrepitude since the 1970s, many core cities have experienced real, often bracing, turnarounds. Yet concern is growing that the revitalization of parts of these cities has unevenly benefited some residents at the expense of others. In a new study for the Center for Opportunity Urbanism, found that, in most cities, unbalanced urban growth has exacerbated class divisions, while doing little to address the decline of middle-class households.
Retail
Dollar Stores are thriving in the USA — www.visualcapitalist.com The retail apocalypse has forced the closure of many brick-and-mortar stores around the country. Despite this, here's why dollar stores are thriving.
Mixed use
Adaptive vertical mixed use — marketurbanismreport.com
The Crosstown Concourse in Memphis, TN. Per Scott Beyer in his Market Urbanism Report, it was converted from a Sear’s distribution center to a "vertical urban village" that accommodates every living need within one structure.
Master-planned communities
In southeast Austin, Bnchmark Land Development, along with various home builders, is transforming 700 acres of a former dairy farm into a mixed-use neighborhood with a variety of single-family homes, townhomes, duplexes, apartments, and affordable housing.
Around the world
Five property rights hotspots for 2019
From land reform in South Africa to ancestry websites in the United States, here are five property rights hotspots for 2019.