Urbanexus Update - Issue #66
Please scroll down for the weekly compilation of analysis, reporting, and opinion about real estate and community development. Some links may lead to items that are behind a paywall.
The economy and real estate in the USA
Is the post-crisis real estate boom winding down?
Stores are shutting on New York’s Fifth Avenue as the retail sector suffers in the face of the relentless rise of ecommerce. In China, a frenzy of real estate speculation has led to millions of empty new-build apartments and to street protests over price drops. Listed real estate securities worldwide are trading at steep discounts to the book value of their assets, a phenomenon that in the past has heralded downturns.
RCLCO's mid-year 2019 sentiment survey results
Responses to the mid-year 2019 Sentiment Survey suggest that respondents have pulled back somewhat on recent pessimism.
The RCLCO Current Real Estate Market Sentiment Index (RMI) has decreased since mid-year 2018 from 68.0 to 49.2, an increase from the RMI of 37.5 six months ago.
Looking ahead, real estate is expected to experience gradually declining market conditions over the next 12 months, with the RMI anticipated to drop to 41.5.
Approximately 9 out of 10 survey respondents (88%) believe the downturn will not occur until 2020 at the earliest, with 57% not predicting the downturn until 2021 or later. The next downturn is considered to be much less imminent than it did six months ago, when 46% of respondents believed the downturn would begin in 2019 or had already begun.
Most respondents (70%) indicate that either trade wars or a global economic slowdown were the two most likely causes of the next downturn.
Respondents indicate that most product types remain firmly in the “late stable” phase of the real estate cycle, with all but retail easing back from the cycle peak relative to year-end 2018 sentiments. The product types not yet in the “late stable” phase are on the cusp between “early stable” and “late stable.”
Respondents anticipate that within the next 12 months, several product types will have moved past the peak and into the “early downturn” phase.
Demographics
Urban population change — www.visualcapitalist.com
More than two thirds of the global population will live in urban areas by 2050. The impact this will have on urban demographics will be profound, but will very depending on where you live, work or invest in the world.
Hotels
Lending for hospitality investment and development
Hotels are enjoying the benefits of strong demand from both personal and business travel. Despite these solid operating fundamentals, lenders are apprehensive about the record length of the current economic expansion and the effect a future downturn may have on room rates and occupancy levels. In response to these growing fears, capital sources have either tightened their lending criteria or decided to cease hospitality lending all together. This has created opportunities for lesser-known sources of capital to finance high quality properties.
Retail
What’s the next chapter for Barnes & Noble? A hedge fund wants to buy the bookstore chain for $683 million, including debt. Will the deal work? Experts from Wharton and elsewhere share their insights.
Urban design
How New York’s skyline Is changing
New Yorkers are witnessing a boom of luxury residential buildings. Here is how zoning regulations make them possible. See below for a graphic presentation of twenty buildings that are proposed or under construction that would figure among the thirty tallest in the city.
Jacobs tops the list of the 20th century's most influential urban thinkers. Many see her work as foundational to the"New Urbanism" movement. Yet, Jacobs saw their work as a betrayal: "They [New Urbanists] only create what they say they hate" she is quoted to have said. Was the rebuke justified?
Historic preservation
Portland Building renovation and historic status — archpaper.com
Here is something from the "no-good-deed-goes-unpunished" department.
Gentrification
Mission Pie will soon close its doors — missionlocal.org
Mission Pie, the 12-year-old restaurant and bakery at Mission and 25th in San Francisco, deploys the clever slogan, “Eat Pie. Live Forever.” If only.
Who gets to own the West of the USA? — www.nytimes.com A new group of billionaires is shaking up the landscape.
Environment
Climate change region by region in the USA — grist.org
Not all regions in the U.S. are going to experience climate change in the same way. We need to know what’s happening in our respective spaces so we can be prepared.
Around the world
The Shanghai to Changzhou adjacent urban areas — www.newgeography.com
The second most expansive urbanization in the world stretches from Shanghai to Changzhou in China and has an estimated population of 39.5 million, stretching approximately 250 kilometers (150 miles) from Pudong International Airport in Shanghai’s eastern suburbs to western Changzhou.
A bigger danger to the UK economy than Brexit — seekingalpha.com
For years now, people have been complaining that British house prices are too high - this could be true. But a large danger to the economy is what would happen if house prices fell substantially.
Remains of Spain's housing bubble — www.citylab.com “We need to remember these places, what we did here and what we should learn for the future,” says photographer Markel Redondo. “We need to know that these buildings are still there.”
