Urbanexus Update - Issue #72
Urbanexus Update - Issue #72
Scroll down for the weekly compilation of analysis, reporting, and opinion about real estate and community development, prepared by H. Pike Oliver, Acting Chair of the Runstad Department of Real Estate in the College of Built Environments at the University of Washington. Please note that some links may lead to items that are behind a paywall.
The economy
A recession is coming (eventually) Economists don’t know when the decade-long expansion, now the longest in American history, will end. But here are the indicators they will be watching to figure it out.
In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the Committee's view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.
Yield curve signals recessions — www.nytimes.com The bond market’s yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street.
Housing share of GDP continues to decline — eyeonhousing.org
With the release of the estimate of second quarter 2019 gross development product (GDP) growth (2.1% growth rate) in the USA, housing's share of GDP continued a downward trend.
Visualizing the commodity super cycle — www.visualcapitalist.com The prices of energy, agriculture, livestock and metals tell the story of human development. Learn about the commodity super cycle in this infographic.
Retail
Convenience and lifestyle centers — www.rhsdplanning.com
West End in the Twin Cities is large, at 350,000 sq. ft., but not so huge that it should have had a problem leasing. Yet, 10 years on, there are sections of the center that have never been leased, including a space over 20,000 sq. ft. Everyone acknowledges that brick-and-mortar retail is more challenging now due to online shopping. However, this center has approximately a 23% vacancy rate, whereas the overall Twin Cities retail vacancy rate was 9.4 percent at the end of 2018. Poor design exacerbates the vacancy rate in this lifestyle center.
Housing and community development
Today, the aspiration of regular people to own homes—arguably one of the greatest achievements of postwar democracy—is fading. Per Joel Kotkin and Wendell Cox, the dilution of this key aspect of the American dream is not the result of market conditions or changing preferences, but rather the concerted effort of planners and pundits.
NIMBY vs. YIMBY housing battle The advocacy group Livable California has led the resistance to the state’s biggest housing proposals. What's their appeal for “local control” really about?
How ‘developer’ became a dirty word It’s a demonized group, yet there are few solutions for the housing shortage that don’t at least partly involve more development.
Google’s $1 billion housing pledge doesn't add up
Google's widely publicized plans to build 20,000 homes with $1 billion might shows good faith by the company. But the belief that this $1 billion will create 20,000 new homes is patently false. Ace Houston explains why.
Urban design
Envisioning the revitalized design of the Old Sacramento riverfront — ideas.stantec.com Design competition inspires interdisciplinary team to craft a vision to transform an underutilized district into a vibrant community
Places
The US Census Bureau details "micropolitan" areas, that is, areas that are not in a Metropolitan Statistical Area but that do meet a certain population threshold.
Environment and resilience
Tom Gibbs led the historic Lake Washington cleanup — www.seattletimes.com Mr. Gibbs' projects in the 1960s ended the constant flow of raw sewage into the lake and Puget Sound.
Is 2030 a climate change tipping point?
The 2030 climate change tipping point date is frequently cited but often misused. It is drawn from the a 2018 special report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It said that the planet, which has already warmed 1 degree Celsius, would warm 1.5 degrees between 2030 and 2052 unless dramatic steps were taken to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. (The mid-point is 2040.) That’s been translated to just 12 years to take action. But scientists have argued the statement in the report has been misunderstood.
Flood risk for thousands of USA coastal residences by 2050 Nearly 20,000 U.S. homes built in the past decade are at significant risk of chronic coastal flooding by 2050.
How to keep us cooler in hotter cities As days of extreme heat get more common, there are a few simple solutions that cities around the world are implementing to keep people a little more comfortable.
Social development
Grade-school program results in more successful lives
University of Washington researchers have found that that “good life” in adulthood can start in grade school, by teaching parents and teachers to build stronger bonds with their children, and to help children form greater attachments to family and school. In a study of more than 800 adults throughout their 30s — a group the researchers have followed since they were fifth-graders at Seattle elementary schools in 1985 — the people who reported better health and socioeconomic status were, consistently, those whose parents and teachers had received lessons aimed at building stronger bonds with their children decades ago.